Thursday, October 29, 2009

Rundown of CEMJQ Trading Today...


Traders took it to the 7ema today at 1.03 on the 3mos daily...bounced it right off of it...like clockwork here folks...lid's gonna come off at some point...matter of time...BV - book value up...one of many positives coming off that 3rd quarter report plus everything else going on here fundamentally looking good imo...nothing FUNDAMENTALLY HAS CHANGED - IF ANYTHING, FUNDAMENTALS ARE GETTING BETTER/STRONGER...it's the TECHNICALS we are battling here...This is a long battle...if the FUNDAMENTALS PROVE TO BE TRUE, THEY ARE GOING TO CRUSH THE TECHNICALS...

ARE YOU GONNA LET THE TECHNICALS KNOCK YOU OUT WHEN THE FUNDAMENTALS ARE REALLY WINNING THIS FIGHT?

CEMJQ Third Quarter Results 2009 - During Chapter 11

Okay folks, I'm gonna keep it real here. We had one helluva ride the past couple of weeks in the markets. Let's try to make sense of it how it relates to Chemtura Corporation. We saw Chemtura have a pullback from it's Post Bankruptcy high of 1.48 back on October 15th. The bears took control after that doji formed on the daily chart on the 15th, and it hit the top of it's trading channel. A quick look at the weekly chart will show an investor that the 1.50 region presented strong resistance, not only for it being the top of the trading channel, but prior to bankrupcty, the 1.50 region was a sideways trading channel for some time prior to Chemtura falling off the cliff when it was obvious they were headed into bankruptcy earlier this year. Now, the bears took over after hitting 1.48, and Chemtura has yet to recover from that pullback. The bears took it below it's trading channel to the .98 region, then a couple of bullish days took it to 1.17, but it came right back down on some low volume. It touched down in the .89 arena which served as support - the 34 ema was sitting right there, and I have conjectured that the 21 million share purchase by SVP at average cost of around .90 per share, would serve as good support. Well, we shall see if this is true, but the good news is that Chemtura's 3-Q results came in today, and they were mighty tasty for a company in bankruptcy. This spurned some buyers coming back into the picture and the price topped out today, Oct. 29th at 1.03 and closed @ .96 pps. I was not at my computer today, so I could not watch the tape, but I'm sure that the market makers are trying to keep a lid on Chemtura for more big money to accumulate, but how long can this go on? It might be hard because we have some nice numbers in the 3rd Quarter Filing. Here are some Highlights:

Consolidated Statements of Operations (Unaudited):
(In millions, except per share data.)

Net Earnings (Loss): 8
Net Earnings per share: .03

------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Balance Sheet Highlights (in millions):

Total Current Assets = 1454
Total NonCurrent Assets = 1670

Total Assets = 3,124
(Total Assets = Total Current Assets + Total Non-Current Assets)

Total Current Liabilities = 647
Total Non-Current Liabilities = 339
Total Liabilities Subject to Compromise = 1,793
(Total Liabilities Subject to Compromise = Total Current Liabilities + Total Non-Current Liabilities)

Total Liabilities not subject to compromise: 986

Total Liabilities: 986 + 1793 = 2779
(Total Liabilities = Total Liabilities not subject to compromise + Total Liabilities subject to compromise)

Total Chemtura Stockholder Equity = 3124 - 2779 = 345
(Stockholder Equity = Total Assets - Total Liabilities)

Segment Net Sales and Operating Profit (Loss) (Unaudited):
(In millions)

Total Sales: 681
Consumer Performance Products = 115
Industrial Performance Products = 271
Crop Protection Engineered Products = 89
Industrial Engineered Products = 206

Operating Profit (Loss): 61
Consumer Performance Products = 17
Industrial Performance Products = 29
Crop Protection Engineered Products = 5
Industrial Engineered Products = 10

General corporate expense, including amortization: (27)

***Impairment Of Long-Lived Assets: 0 (This is big here folks. Huge impairment charges taken in previous quarters, and none here...lookin' good)****

Total Operating Profit (Loss): 34
(Total Operating Profit = Total Operating Profit - General Corporate Expense)

Book Value = Assets - Liabilities / Equity

Book Value = 3124 - 2779 / 242.9 = 345 / 242.9

Book Value = 1.42

Chemtura closed trading today as mentioned earlier at .96. Still a bargain in my book, but the market makers are gonna try to scare retail into selling this gem of a stock. It is what they do because the pink sheets and the OTC - Over the Counter Bulletin - have no regulators to enforce much of anything, so it's kinda like the Wild West of Investing. For those who can stomach the swings on this stock and this exchange, it might prove fruitful all the way back to Big Board Status. Fundamentals are getting better everyday for this company, and for some this may be the opportunity of a lifetime. Fundamentals are looking good even though the technicals have taken a real beating lately.

Link to 3rd Quarter Report at Chemtura's Website:

http://phoenix.corporate-ir.net/phoenix.zhtml?c=68079&p=irol-newsArticle&ID=1348488&highlight=

A Look at the Volatitility Index and What it Means for Investors/Traders


VIX - Volatility Index Chart...

I like to see that red candle because I'm not playing the shorts...All indicators are overbought on this one, so it may need to cool off a bit...meaning we've seen some market volatility the past few weeks and some normalcy and stabilization may be returning to markets...For those of you who do not know what the VIX is, it gauges market sentiment - volatility - the higher it is, the more the bears are in control, the lower it goes, the more the bulls are...

10 mon daily chart here to help you see...the vix tried to push up over the $30 marker 3 times since the late august/early september, and this last attempt pittered out, suggesting that market volatility is waning again, and that although we may not be going straight up, a blow to overall markets could be less likely here for those perma-bears out there...again, only a gauge here...and let's wait til earning season is done before we get all merry about it though...that said, shorts may need to start covering soon.

Tuesday, October 27, 2009

Lehman's Bros - What going on here?


Lehman's securities - yes, that former banking giant - are still trading, and they recently hit some post bankruptcy highs. I don't have time for a full analysis here, but I will provide you with some quick insights based on the chart of one security - LEHPQ.

It hit a post bankruptcy high of $11.40 a couple of weeks ago, and has been consolidating over the past couple of weeks, but the chart looks like it might be breaking a bit. What does this mean? It could test recent support levels in the sub $5 range. But you can see that it has gone thru all of the EMA levels here, and the bollinger band is starting to head south a tad. There is a cup-and-handle formation in there, with the handle being formed, and although many indicators are way oversold, this could still see some more selling before it heads north again.

LEHPQ is a spec chapter 11 play and is not recommended for your average investor. Any investor must do his or her own due diligence before deciding on entering this game.

CEMJQ Chart and Fundamental Analysis


We know that SVP had acquired @ 21 million shares, or roughly 9% of the os, at around an average of .90/pps...so that position might be a strong area of support here...on the weekly chart the 34ema is at .89...that should be the next pretty strong support area if it gets there - so the 34ema and the fact that we know that SVP has shares at an average in that .90 pps range, will hopefully be our solid support level under a buck...So based on this, we could see a consolidation pattern here much like pgpdq did during their uptrend...I think we go into a sideways channel as opposed to a serious drop because of the aforementioned reasons plus we also know that we had big buyers in 1.00+ range...One would think that that would keep the price stable within this consolidation range...unless of course their is a big, quick shake as opposed to a slow bleed scenario...

We have some mm's shaking the tree and as someone previously stated...getting shares from retail...I wish we knew who has been buying in the $1+ range...

Now on the upside of the chart...that 1.50 area is resistance but will be a strong support level once broken because you can see that it consolidated in that range for a while prior to bankruptcy...beyond that we will have some resistance levels, but major resistance is on the weekly around that $5 pps range as you can see on the chart how it consolidated in that range prior to bankruptcy...once we break that we have strong support there...

Keep in mind, I am looking at the weekly, and the current week is not over yet, but it's good to take a look at the bigger picture here, and what possible scenarious might play out...

Monday, October 5, 2009

P&L October 09 Totals

P&L For Bigg Bank Theory for October 2009:

Ticker: LHHMQ
Buy Date: May 2009
Sell Date: Oct. 6, 2009
Quantity: 1500 shares
Buy PPS: @ .22 ($334.50 including commissions)
Sell PPS: @ .44 ($655.50 including commissions)

LHHMQ Gain/Loss: $321.00+ 97% GAIN

Ticker: LEHNQ
Buy Date: May 2009
Sell Date: Oct. 6, 2009
Quantity: 1000 shares
Buy PPS: @ .10 ($104.50 including commissions)
Sell PPS: @ .50 ($495.50 including commissions)

LEHNQ Gain/Loss: $391.00+ 100+% GAIN


Ticker: LEHNQ
Buy Date: May 2009
Sell Date: Oct. 6, 2009
Quantity: 1000 shares
Buy PPS: @ .24 ($244.50 including commissions)
Sell PPS: @ .50 ($495.50 including commissions)

LEHNQ Gain/Loss: $251.00+ 100+% GAIN


Ticker: SANM
Buy Date: May 2009
Sell Date: Oct. 5, 2009
Quantity: 250 shares
Buy PPS: @ .64 ($166.28 including commissions)
Sell PPS: @ 8.44 ($343.04 including commissions)

(gain/loss includes commission cost at sogotrade of $6 total on the roundtrip. SANM also experienced a forward split during the summer, where my share count was reduced to 41 shares.)

SANM Gain/Loss: $176.76+


Ticker: LEHKQ
Buy Date: 9/23/09
Sell Date: 10/5/ 2009
Quantity: 1000 shares
Buy PPS: @ .36 ($364.50 including commissions)
Sell PPS: @ .43 ($425.05 including commissions)

(commissions paid here were $9 round trip at zecco)

LEHKQ Gain/Loss: $61.00+